The theory of demographic transition studies demographics and social characteristics using census data, surveys, and statistical models to analyze the size, movement, structure, and movement of human populations over space and time.
The demographic transition theory of population growth was coined by the American demographer Frank W. Notestein (1945). It uses methods from history, economics, anthropology, sociology, and other fields to influence economic growth, structural productivity growth, living standards, savings rates, consumption, and investment of a country.
The theory of demographic transition refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and death rates in societies with minimum technology, literacy rates, and economic development to low birth rates and low death rates in societies with advanced technology, higher education, technological development, and better economic conditions.
The classical demographic transition model can be divided into four stages.
These four stages of demographic changes are depicted on the graph given below:
Population growth explains the increase in the number of people in a population caused exclusively by fertility, mortality, and migration. Population change can be either positive or negative, depending on the balance of births and deaths. In case of more deaths, the world's population will grow slowly or can even decline. The growing population is measured in both absolute and relative terms.
As per the 2018 World Population Data Sheet, there were an estimated 7.5 billion people on the planet, and the population continues to grow. The current live population of the world is 7.9 billion as of December 2021. However, the world population is projected to increase from 7.8 billion in 2020 to 9.9 billion by 2050.
Based on the World meter elaboration of the latest United Nations, the current population of the United States of America is 333,770,690 as of December 5, 2021.
Presently, India is the second most populated country globally and represents almost 17.85%, or nearly a fifth of the overall global population. With the population growth rate at 1.2%, an overall increase of 1.53 billion people is predicted by the end of 2030 due to the persistence of high fertility and declining mortality rate.
The demographic cycle or population cycle refers to the evolution of the population profile of a country, region, or other defined geographical area. The four stages of population change identified in the demographic cycle are:
Demographic transition is considered as the most acceptable theory of population growth because:
1. What happens to the human population during a demographic transition?
Throughout this demographic transition, the declining birth rates followed by the declining death rates usher in an era of rapid population growth. This transition usually brings development and transformation from an agrarian into an industrial society.
2. What is a demographic transition theory, and how does it affect the world population?
3. What is the significance of the demographic transition in human population studies?
The demographic transition model has enabled economies to convert more of the gains from factor accumulation and technological progress into increased income per capita. Firstly, the decline in population growth reduced the growing capital and infrastructure dilution, increasing the number of resources per capita.
Second, lower fertility rates led to fewer but healthier children, enhancing the human capital and higher labor productivity. Third, a younger population temporarily increases the labor force and mechanically boosts productivity per capita.
4. Is the human population increasing or decreasing?
The world population has increased from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.7 billion today. This implies that, on average, the population grew very slowly from 10,000 BCE to 1700, with an annual increase of 0.04%.
5. What happens during the transitional stage of the demographic transition?
6. Why does the population change?
Changes in birth and death rates are the major reasons for population changes, whether in an individual country or worldwide.
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